In last year’s market outlook article, I wrote that only a recession or Black Swan would kill the current bull market. Absent either, the bull would continue.
In 2016 the US economy did not experience even a single quarter with a contracting GDP. Nor can the election of Donald Trump be classified as a Black Swan as it was highly predictable to people with more than two brain cells. The bull thus raged on with the S&P 500 up 12.74% year to date.
In other words, $100 000 passively invested in an index fund would have grown to $112 740. Not bad for just one single 12 month investment. This is of course 4 percentage points above the long-term average of 8. A majority of said monster gains came after Trump’s election win.